Market Research
Macro Expectation Thermometer
Track prediction-market probabilities, official-data pressure, and asset repricing risk before turning macro views into trade analysis.
Public delayed research view
Macro Temperature
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Official Data
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Easing Probability
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EV Score
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Research Logic
- We treat macro and breaking events as expectation markets first, not as a news tape. Polymarket is used to observe market-implied probabilities where volume, liquidity, and time-to-resolution make the signal tradable enough to study.
- Those odds are then cross-checked against official data, central-bank calendars, statements, minutes, speeches, and reaction-function pressure to identify where market pricing and the policy path diverge.
- Only then do we map the signal into asset pricing, volatility, and trade expected value, separating tradable mispricing from watch-only risk and noise that should be ignored.
This page is for market research and educational display only. Prediction-market prices are not official probabilities and do not constitute investment advice.